企业的任何投资决策高度依赖于企业的内部现金流,对企业现金流不确定性的变化非常敏感。本文利用2005—2016年沪深A股上市公司数据,检验了实体企业持有房地产的内在决定因素——现金流不确定性的作用机理。结果发现:(1)现金流不确定性对企业房地产持有的预防效应占主导,即现金流不确定性会加剧企业融资约束程度,进而抑制房地产投资。(2)在不同的现金流不确定性程度下,现金流不确定性双重效应的主导地位会发生变化。即当企业面对高现金流不确定性时,现金流不确定性的预防效应占主导。反之,资助效应占主导。(3)前一年高现金持有及现金流正向流动会缓解现金流不确定性对企业房地产持有的预防效应。(4)一线城市会加强现金流不确定性的预防效应,而房地产超额回报率和担保物权制度改革会削弱这种效应。因此,建议企业尤其是先进制造业企业,不应高杠杆经营房地产业务,应降低非主营业务的债务负担与经营风险,将有限的金融资源集中于技术创新。此外,企业应客观地应对现金流不确定性的冲击,管理好现金流不确定性,密切关注不同城市的金融财政政策和房地产调控政策,合理规避“风险”。

Any corporate investment decision is highly dependent on the corporate internal cash flow and is quite sensitive to the variance of cash flow uncertainty. The paper uses the data from Chinese listed companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets between 2005 and 2016 to examine the specific effect of the internal motivation-cash flow uncertainty on corporate real estate holdings. Our empirical results find that: First, generally, the precautionary effect of cash flow uncertainty on corporate real estate holdings plays a dominant role. That is, cash flow uncertainty can aggravate the degree of financing constraints, inhibiting corporate real estate investment. Second, the dominant position of the dual effect of cash flow uncertainty will change under different degrees of cash flow uncertainty. When faced with high cash flow uncertainty, the preventive effect of cash flow uncertainty on real estate investment will dominate, whereas when faced with low cash flow uncertainty, the precautionary effect of cash flow uncertainty may dominate. Third, high cash holdings and positive flow of cash flow of the previous year mitigate the precautionary effect of cash flow uncertainty. Fourth, the precautionary effect of cash flow uncertainty in first-tier cities is more obvious, whereas excess real estate returns and the reform of real right guarantee system will reduce the negative impact of cash flow uncertainty. This paper suggests that enterprises, especially advanced manufacturing enterprises, should not engage in real estate business with high leverage. Rather, they should reduce the debt burden and operational risk of non-main business, and concentrate their limited financial resources on corporate innovation. In addition, enterprises should objectively deal with the impact of cash flow uncertainty, manage cash flow uncertainty well, pay close attention to the financial and fiscal policies and real estate regulation policies among different cities, and thereby reasonably avoid “risks”.