美国作为全球第一大独立经济体,对他国经济的影响一直受到广泛关注。本文运用MS-VAR模型研究了不同阶段下,美国经济对中国经济周期的传导机制和影响效果。研究结果表明,中美两国的经济周期波动存在显著的区制转换特征,且不论是扩张阶段还是收缩阶段,美国经济周期通过金融途径的传导效应都要高于贸易途径。当两国同时处于经济扩张期时,美国经济增长产生的投资虹吸效应对中国经济增长将形成压制,其正向的贸易效应不足以抵消金融的负面影响;而当中国经济处于收缩阶段时,美国经济增长将改善中国的外部环境,提升外商投资与对外贸易,从而对中国经济复苏带来正向影响。美国经济对中国经济周期的非对称传导效应,反映出中美两国在产业竞争力上还存在一定的差距。

As the largest independent economy in the world, the influence of the United States on other countries' economies has been widely concerned. This paper uses MS-VAR model to study the transmission mechanism and influence effect of American economic fluctuation on Chinese business cycle at different stages. The results show that there is a significant regional system transformation in the fluctuation of business cycle between China and the United States, and the transmission effect of American business cycle through financial channels is higher than that through trade channels in both expansion and contraction stages. When the two countries are in the period of economic expansion at the same time, the investment siphon effect produced by American economic growth will suppress China's economic growth, and its positive trade effect is not enough to offset the negative impact of finance; When China's economy is in the contraction stage, US economic growth will improve China's external environment, foreign investment and foreign trade can be improved, which will have a positive impact on China's economic recovery. At the same time, we find that the asymmetric transmission effect of American economy on Chinese business cycle reflects that there is still a certain distance between China and the United States in industrial competitiveness.