Research on the Correlation Mechanism Between Financial Cycle and Business Cycle: Double Test Based on DY Dynamic Spillover Index and Time-Varying Granger Causality
Based on the financial stability index and macroeconomic factors, this paper studies the interaction between the financial cycle and the economic cycle by using the DY dynamic spillover index. It is found that the dynamic spillover effect of financial cycle on business cycle is time-varying and dominant in China. The spillover effect of business cycle on financial cycle is negligible. Furthermore, we use the time-varying Granger causality test to test the relationship between the two cycles. The results show that there is a time-varying Granger causality between the financial cycle and the economic cycle under the condition of controlling the inflation level, and the financial cycle is the Granger cause of the economic cycle only in a specific period. Financial stability is conducive to macroeconomic stability. Policy authorities should create conditions conducive to financial stability and achieve financial and macroeconomic stability.
LIU Jinquan, WANG Guozhi.
Research on the Correlation Mechanism Between Financial Cycle and Business Cycle: Double Test Based on DY Dynamic Spillover Index and Time-Varying Granger Causality. Jinan Journal. 2021, 43(4): 84-99