本文基于两部门模型,构建实际汇率低估影响经济增长的理论框架,并通过对全球179个国家(地区)1970—2017年大型跨国面板数据的实证分析发现,实际汇率低估能够促进经济增长,其影响渠道是通过加快工业部门(可贸易部门)的规模扩张,同时促进劳动力跨部门转移、资本投资与技术进步。然而,实际汇率低估的增长效应会随着工业化进程而逐渐减弱,具体将伴随劳动力剩余减少、金融发展水平提升以及前沿技术差距收敛而弱化。研究结论认为当一国工业化进程尚未触及实际汇率低估不利于经济增长的临界条件,维持实际汇率在适当水平仍然是推动经济增长的重要条件。

Based on the two-sector model, this paper constructs the theoretical framework of the effect of real exchange rate undervaluation on economic growth, and through the empirical analysis of large-scale transnational panel data of 179 countries (regions) from 1970 to 2017. It is found that real exchange rate undervaluation promotes one country's industrialization process to achieve economic growth. The influence channels include labor transfer, capital accumulation, and technological progress in the trade sector, but the growth effect will be gradually weakened with the advancement of industrialization, specifically with the reduction of labor surplus, the improvement of financial development level and the convergence of frontier technology gap. The conclusion is that: when the industrialization process of a country has not reached the critical condition in which the undervalued real exchange rate is not conducive to economic growth, maintaining the real exchange rate at an appropriate level is still an important prerequisite for promoting the economic growth.